The delphi method the identity of the individuals participating in the study.
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Organizations and companies use it when they want to tackle significant decision-making that will set the future guidelines. The results of this analysis have direct implications for the development or revision of a lot of aspects inside the companies. Furthermore, there are relevant applications of this method as forecasting, issue identification, prioritization or concept and framework development that makes it unique and a very powerful tool. The method accuracy can be evaluated by comparing it with other methods of measure with direct interaction, structured and unstructured. After the application of this method, other supplementary analysis to take into account may be the distributional estimates, the individual skills learning and different forms of feedback, as ask the subjects to write their reasons for the answers. Finally, the ethical considerations that have this method are delicate because the participants do not meet face to face, so they can react to ideas unbiased by the participants' identities. This article explains the Delphi methodology and their principles aspects and applications. Contents
IntroductionThe Delphi method is a technique used to make quantitative assessments to solve complex problems by series of questionnaires made to experts in the fields of study. Companies consider it, mainly, when they have to tackle important decision-making that will set the future orientations (e.g. portfolio/program management). The results obtained in the analysis have direct implications for the evolution of their procedures, policies or programs [1]. HistoryThe first experiment using the method was implemented for the improvement in the scores of horse races. The name was coined by the philosopher Kaplan, in honour of the Oracle of Delphi, at the beginning of the Cold War to obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion [1]. All this work was secret because of its warlike character. Then, in the early 1960s, some information about the method commenced being published in the literature [2]. The Delphi method has been used by many different disciplines during the years trying to get the maximum accuracy in every study field and continues these days being a powerful tool in development and improvement. Objective of the methodThe main objective of this technique is to obtain the most reliable predicted future based on the consensus of a group of experts in the study field [3]. TechniquesDelphi method exists in two different forms. Commonly, is used the paper-and-pencil version (called ‘Delphi Exercise’). In this situation, a small team design and send a questionnaire which is sent and answered to the respondent group. After this questionnaire is returned to the developers and they summarize the results. Based on them, is been developed a new questionnaire for the respondents and successively. The respondents have one opportunity, at least, to reevaluate their answers. Moreover, there is another one called ‘Delphi Conference’ that is increasing in popularity over time. This technique replaces the team by a computer which has been programmed to compute the results of the group of study. Comparing both techniques, there are advantages and disadvantages e.g. the ‘Delphi conference’ eliminates the delay caused in the summarization of each round. However, to apply it is required that the communication characteristics be perfectly defined to avoid possible compilation errors or misunderstanding [4]. Main CharacteristicsThe key characteristics of the Delphi method can be defined as seven different [5]:
Additionally, Robert Loo [1] express his point of view of the characteristics as five main points that can be summarized in the seven presented before and the necessity of at least three or four iterations of questionnaires and feedbacks. MethodologyFigure 1. Theoretical framework of Delphi qualitative in research (Figure adapted from (Mirzaaghabeik & Vosoughifar, 2016) for the article) The methodology of this technique can be divided into 3 simple points [3]:
Furthermore, in Figure 1 can be seen the simple theoretical structure of the complete process from the application requirements until the group response (data collection) [6]. Number of participantsThe sample size is a practical consideration when the research is faced. For the number of participants, there are not fast or hard rules, but it has to be considered a number of factors [7]:
Number of roundsThe number of rounds is variable and depends mainly on the research purpose. In overall, with two or three iterations is sufficient for obtaining a good result, but depends directly on the homogeneity of the sample. If the work sample is heterogeneous, there will be required three or more rounds and, on the other hand, if the sample is homogeneous, fewer than three rounds may be enough to reach the consensus [7]. Applications of the methodDelphi has been approved rapidly with hundreds of studies worldwide. Furthermore, the applications of this method have grown in a lot of different ways e.g. project management or social phenomena as human values and attitudes or quality of life [8]. Okoli et al. listed examples of the method applications dividing them into two main applications: Forecasting and Issue (identification/prioritization) and Concept/ Framework Development. Table 1 reflects the method applications in information systems research. In the research process, the applications of the Delphi method are very diverse. It can stand out among them: the specification of research questions, the selection of variables of interest/generation of propositions, the preliminary identification of causal relationships, the identification of the research topic or the definition of constructs and creation of a common language for discourse [3]. Table 1. Delphi method applications in information system research (Table adapted from (Okoli & Pawlowski, 2004) for the article).
Accuracy of the methodThe accuracy of the Delphi method can be measured by the comparison between different judgment methods. In most studies, no statistical comparison between methods is made. So as is shown in Table 2, and based on bibliography [2], the judgment methods can be put on a scale of accuracy so that the less accurate is at the left and the most accurate at the right part. Table 2. Judgement methods in order of increasing accuracy (Table adapted from (Woudenberg, 1991)).
As discussed above, when it is used the Delphi’s method, is normal to expect higher accuracy as compared to unstructured, direct interaction or the staticized group. Supplementary analysisIn addition to this technique, there are substudies that can be done to deepen in the search of information on the study that is being carried out, Norman Dalkey [9], made a selection of the most interesting results:
Ethical considerationsIn Delphi method, is not necessary that the participants meet with each other face and accordingly. They can behave and present to some ideas impartially, that is to say, the participants have the freedom to react unbiased by the pressures and the identities of the rest. Moreover, the anonymity is one of the main relevant points of this method, making it a characteristic from other consensus and judgments methods. To maintain the rigour of the technique, Sumsion [10] suggested a 70% of response rate. To achieve it, the researcher has to know the identity of the participants and non-respondent must be pursued. Additionally, the complete anonymity presents some term problems. Because of that, is referred as a ‘quasi-anonymity’ and the respondents know one another, but their opinions and judgments remain in complete anonymity always. Furthermore, based on the experimental results [9] and comparing the face-to-face groups with the anonymous groups, the median response of the questionnaire is more accurate in the anonymous, even though the final decision is that there is not statistically significant between them. Annotated bibliographyDalkey, Norman. 1969. “An Experimental Study of Group Opinion.” Futures 1(5):408–26. Retrieved (http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S001632876980025X).
Linstone, Harold A. and Murray Turoff. 1976. “The Delphi Method: Techniques and Applications.” Technometrics 18(3):363. Retrieved (http://www.millennium-project.org/FRMv3_0/04-Delphi.pdf).
Loo, Robert. 2002. “The Delphi Method: A Powerful Tool for Strategic Management.” Policing: An International Journal of Police Strategies & Management 25(4):762–69. Retrieved (http://www.emeraldinsight.com/doi/10.1108/13639510210450677).
McKenna, Hugh P. 1994. “The Delphi Technique: A Worthwhile Research Approach for Nursing?” Journal of Advanced Nursing 19(6):1221–25. Retrieved (http://doi.wiley.com/10.1111/j.1365-2648.1994.tb01207.x).
Mirzaaghabeik, Hossein and Hamid Reza Vosoughifar. 2016. “Comparison between Quality and Quantity Seismic Damage Index for LSF Systems.” Engineering Science and Technology, an International Journal 19(1):497–510. Retrieved (http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jestch.2015.08.013).
Okoli, Chitu and Suzanne D. Pawlowski. 2004. “The Delphi Method as a Research Tool: An Example, Design Considerations and Applications.” Information & Management 42(1):15–29. Retrieved (http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0378720603001794).
Sackman, H. 1974. “Delphi Assessment: Expert Opinion, Forecasting and Group Process”. Retrieved (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/235209130_Delphi_Assessment_Expert_Opinion_Forecasting_and_Group_Process).
Skulmoski, Gregory J., Francis T. Hartman, and Jennifer Krahn. 2007. “The Delphi Method for Graduate Research” edited by D. Heymann. Journal of Information Technology Education 6(1):1–21. Retrieved (https://www.researchgate.net/publication/220590716_The_Delphi_Method_for_Graduate_Research).
Sumsion, Thelma. 1998. “The Delphi Technique: An Adaptive Research Tool.” British Journal of Occupational Therapy 61(4):153–56. Retrieved (http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/030802269806100403).
Woudenberg, Fred. 1991. “An Evaluation of Delphi.” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 40(2):131–50. Retrieved (http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/004016259190002W).
References
What does the Delphi technique identify?The Delphi Technique is a method used to estimate the likelihood and outcome of future events. A group of experts exchange views, and each independently gives estimates and assumptions to a facilitator who reviews the data and issues a summary report.
Who are the main participants of the Delphi technique discussions?To combat these shortcomings, the Delphi method was developed by Project RAND during the 1950-1960s (1959) by Olaf Helmer, Norman Dalkey, and Nicholas Rescher. It has been used ever since, together with various modifications and reformulations, such as the Imen-Delphi procedure.
What is the primary purpose of Delphi technique?The primary purpose of the Delphi technique is to generate a reliable consensus opinion of a group of experts by an iterative process of questionnaire interspersed with controlled feedback[2].
What type of study is a Delphi study?A Delphi study is a virtual panel of experts gathered to arrive at an answer to a difficult question. Thus, a Delphi study could be considered a type of virtual meeting or as a group decision technique, though it appears to be a complicated survey.
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